According to new Cornell University research published in Nature Communications, the demand for battery-grade lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and platinum will increase exponentially assuming vehicle electrification speeds up in order to meet greenhouse gas emission targets set for mid-century.

Such a surge in demand will inevitably create a variety of economic and supply-chain problems.

The researchers examined 48 countries that are committed to playing a major role in electrifying transportation, including the U.S., China and India.

Under a scenario where just 40% of vehicles are battery-electric by 2050, the need for lithium globally will increase 2,909% from the 2020 level.

If 100% of vehicles are battery-electric by 2050, the need for lithium rises to 7,513% of 2020 levels.

Under the scenario where all vehicles are electric in 2050, the annual demand for lithium would increase from 747 metric tons globally in 2010, to 2.2 million metric tons in 2050.

And it’s not just about lithium. By mid-century, for example, the demand for nickel eclipses other critical metals, as the global need ranges from 2 million metric tons, where 40% of vehicles are electric, to 5.2 million metric tons if all vehicles are electric.

According to the researchers, the annual demand for cobalt (ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 million metric tons) and manganese (ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 million metric tons) will rise by the same order of magnitude in 2050,

According to the World Bank, critical metals and minerals are currently centralized in politically unstable countries including Chile, Congo, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa.

The unstable supply of these critical metals and minerals is expected to exacerbate supply risks under surging demand.

Furthermore, the researchers urge caution on the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles, which require more critical metals than other vehicles.

Although they account for only between 4% and 11% of the total road fleet in some countries, battery-related critical metals used in heavy-duty electric vehicles are expected to account for 62% of the critical metal demand in the decades ahead.

With regard to managing this demand, the researchers make three suggestions:

1. Constructing a circular economy would be indispensable to the critical metals if it achieved a closed-loop supply chain in the future.

Strategies should be considered to promote the recycling efficiency and recovery rate of end-of-life batteries at a proper pace.

2. Countries should adopt policies that prioritize alternative designs for cathodes/anodes and fuel-cell systems to reduce the reliance on primary critical metals. And,

3. Decarbonization targets for road transportation should be synchronized with electric vehicle deployment, accurate emission budgets, and the timing of peak carbon.